Setting the scene for a quantum marketplace: where quantum business is up to and how it might unfold
Setting the scene for a quantum marketplace: where quantum business is up to and how it might unfold
When the world’s “first quantum computer” hit the market in 2015, the response was decidedly mixed. Perhaps it’s not surprising that demand for the machine was not exactly clamorous, given its price tag of $10m. But some accused the makers, the quantum-computing company D-Wave Systems from Burnaby in Canada, of hyping the abilities of its machine – which was not even unanimously agreed to be making use of quantum principles at all.
It wasn’t an auspicious start to the commercialization of quantum information technologies (QITs). But that’s not unusual for a new technology. The first motor cars, after all, were prohibitively expensive for most people and were considered health-and-safety hazards. Raising great clouds of dust on unsurfaced roads, cars incited such public opposition that drivers sometimes carried guns for self-protection. At least we know now that quantum computers – information-processing devices that exploit the laws of quantum mechanics to develop new capabilities – are possible. “There is no known barrier from the physics side to building such machines,” says physicist Ian Walmsley, provost of Imperial College in London. “But we’re now moving to the very difficult and challenging engineering that you need to make these things work.”
QIT has not yet found its Henry Ford or Bill Gates to democratize the industry with affordable and reliable devices. “At this stage it’s a game of iterative engineering improvement, not conceptual breakthroughs,” says Chad Rigetti, founder and chief executive of the quantum-computer company Rigetti Computing in Berkeley, California. But already the commercial sector is growing fast. “This ramping up of industrial activity has happened sooner and more suddenly than most of us expected,” says quantum theorist John Preskill of the California Institute of Technology in Pasadena.
Private and public investment
Projections for the future size of the quantum computing industry vary – but most are big. “I think quantum computing will represent a $1bn market by the middle of this decade, and perhaps $5–10bn by 2030,” says Doug Finke, who runs the QIT-tracking website Quantum Computing Report. The latter value would be 10–20% of the value of the high-performance computing market today. According to an estimate from Honeywell, QIT could be worth $1 trillion over the next three decades.
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